Analysis of the COVID-19 Lockdown Impact on Biological Parameters and Physical Performance in Football Players

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in global sustainability, but specifically, this study analyses the impact of lockdown on health and behavior in the game of football. The 2020/2021 Italian football competitive season (indicated as "post-COVID”), taking place following an obliged lockdown and longer than the normal summery season break, was characterized by very short recovery times and was compared to the 2018–2019 "pre-COVID” season, which had a regular course. The comparisons were about anthropometric and hormonal responses, muscle damage, and the physical performance of players in the major league (Serie A), and were made considering two extreme points of the competitive seasons: before the preparatory period (T0) and at the end of the season (T1). Turning to the results, it is significant to note the following: (1) body fat percentage was lower at the start (T0) of the post-COVID season than at the start of the pre-COVID season. During both seasons, serum CK and LDH increased in T1 and were significantly higher in both T0 and T1 of the post-COVID season. (2) Cortisol and testosterone concentrations increased in both seasons from T0 to T1;however, in the post-COVID season, concentrations of both were higher than in the previous season. The testosterone to cortisol ratio increased at the end of the pre-COVID season, whilst strongly decreasing at T1 of the post-COVID season. (3) Blood lactate concentrations significantly decreased during the pre-COVID season but remained unchanged during the post-COVID season. We may conclude that the enforced suspension period and the consequent rapid resumption of all activities influenced the physical and physiological state of professional footballers.

Generalized Linear Regression Model to Determine the Threshold Effects of Climate Variables on Dengue Fever: A Case Study on Bangladesh

One of the leading causes of the increase in the intensity of dengue fever transmission is thought to be climate change. Examining panel data from January 2000 to December 2021, this study discovered the nonlinear relationship between climate variables and dengue fever cases in Bangladesh. To determine this relationship, in this study, the monthly total rainfall in different years has been divided into two thresholds: (90 to 360 mm) and (<90 or >360 mm), and the daily average temperature in different months of the different years has been divided into four thresholds: (16degreeC to <=20degreeC), (>20degreeC to <=25degreeC), (>25degreeC to <=28degreeC), and (>28degreeC to <=30degreeC). Then, quasi-Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson regression models were applied to assess the relationship. This study found a positive correlation between temperature and dengue incidence and furthermore discovered that, among those four average temperature thresholds, the total number of dengue cases is maximum if the average temperature falls into the threshold (>28degreeC to <=30degreeC) and minimum if the average temperature falls into the threshold (16degreeC to <=20degreeC). This study also discovered that between the two thresholds of monthly total rainfall, the risk of a dengue fever outbreak is approximately two times higher when the monthly total rainfall falls into the thresholds (90 mm to 360 mm) compared to the other threshold. This study concluded that dengue fever incidence rates would be significantly more affected by climate change in regions with warmer temperatures. The number of dengue cases rises rapidly when the temperature rises in the context of moderate to low rainfall. This study highlights the significance of establishing potential temperature and rainfall thresholds for using risk prediction and public health programs to prevent and control dengue fever.Copyright © 2023 Shamima Hossain.

Evaluation of Association Between Ct Value of SARS-COV-2 PCR with Disease Progression and Mortality

Objective: Multiple factors have been studied in association with disease severity in COVID-19. The cycle threshold (Ct) value of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can reflect viral load in the specimens. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of the Ct value on clinical course and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Methods: Adult patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR test and who were hospitalized with COVID-19-related symptoms between August 1, 2020, and November 30, 2020, were included in the study. In addition, Ct value, demographic and clinical data (length of hospital stay, need for admission to intensive care unit (ICU), need for mechanical ventilation (MV), and mortality) were reviewed retrospectively. Results: 117 patients were included in the study. The mean Ct value was 22.37 +/- 4.72 (11.07-34.06). There was no significant difference in the mean Ct values between the patients who needed ICU admission and those who did not. When the patients were evaluated by dividing them into three groups according to their Ct values, as < 20, between 20-24 and >24;there was no significant difference between these three groups in terms of severity of pneumonia, laboratory parameters (D-dimer, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count), length of hospital stay, need for ICU admission, need for MV and mortality. When the patients were divided into two groups with Ct values as <23.3 and >= 23.3, no significant difference was found between the groups regarding ICU need, MV need, and 28-day mortality rates. Conclusion: Most of the studies in the literature about Ct value and its effect on clinical course indicate that lower Ct values are potentially associated with worse outcomes in COVID-19. However, there are also studies reporting that the Ct value does not reflect the severity of the disease. We did not find a correlation between Ct value and laboratory markers, length of hospital stay, the severity of pneumonia, need for ICU admission or MV, and mortality in COVID19 patients in this presented study.

Validating saliva as a biological sample for cost-effective, rapid and routine screening for SARS-CoV-2

Purpose: Compared to nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs (N/OPS-VTM), non-invasive saliva samples have enormous potential for scalability and routine population screening of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of saliva samples relative to N/OPS-VTM for use as a direct source for RT-PCR based SARS-CoV-2 detection. Method(s): We collected paired nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs and saliva samples from suspected positive SARS-CoV-2 patients and tested using RT-PCR. We used generalized linear models to investigate factors that explain result agreement. Further, we used simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of saliva-based screening in restricting the spread of infection in a large campus such as an educational institution. Result(s): We observed a 75.4% agreement between saliva and N/OPS-VTM, that increased drastically to 83% in samples stored for less than three days. Such samples processed within two days of collection showed 74.5% test sensitivity. Our simulations suggest that a test with 75% sensitivity, but high daily capacity can be very effective in limiting the size of infection clusters in a workspace. Guided by these results, we successfully implemented a saliva-based screening in the Bangalore Life Sciences Cluster (BLiSC) campus. Conclusion(s): These results suggest that saliva may be a viable alternate source for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance if samples are processed immediately. Although saliva shows slightly lower sensitivity levels when compared to N/OPS-VTM, saliva collection is logistically advantageous. We strongly recommend the implementation of saliva-based screening strategies for large workplaces and in schools, as well as for population-level screening and routine surveillance as we learn to live with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.Copyright © 2023 Indian Association of Medical Microbiologists

[Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of the tixagevimab and cilgavimab combination using for pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19].

AIM: To evaluate pharmacoeconomic feasibility using of the tixagevimab and cilgavimab combination for pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 in immunocompromised patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cost-effectiveness of tixagevimab and cilgavimab in persons ≥12 years old who weigh ≥40 kg and have either a history of allergy that prevents their vaccination against COVID-19 or moderate or immunocompromised was assessed based on PROVENT phase III study results. The quantity of life years or quality-adjusted life years gained was calculated. Direct medical cost associated with prophylaxis of COVID-19, treatment of infected patients and those experiencing long COVID post infection were assessed. Results were compared with wiliness-to-pay threshold, measured as tripled gross domestic product per capita and equal to 2.69 mln RUB in 2022. RESULTS: Pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 results in additional 0.0287 life years or 0.0247 quality-adjusted life years. The cost of additional life year gained is equal to 1.12 mln RUB, the cost of additional quality-adjusted life years is 1.30 mln RUB. Both costs of additional life year and cost of quality-adjusted life years appeared to be significantly less compared to wiliness-to-pay threshold. CONCLUSION: Pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 with combination of tixagevimab and cilgavimab is economically feasible and may be recommended for wide use in Russian healthcare system.

Assessing the comparability of cycle threshold values derived from five external quality assessment rounds for omicron nucleic acid testing.

BACKGROUND: A variety of open-system real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays for several acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 are currently in use. This study aimed to ensure the quality of omicron nucleic acid testing and to assess the comparability of cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from RT-PCR. METHODS: Five external quality assessment (EQA) rounds using the omicron virus-like particles were organized between February 2022 and June 2022. RESULTS: A total of 1401 qualitative EQA reports have been collected. The overall positive percentage agreement was 99.72%, the negative percentage agreement was 99.75%, and the percent agreement was 99.73%. This study observed a significant variance in Ct values derived from different test systems. There was a wide heterogeneity in PCR efficiency among different RT-PCR kits and inter-laboratories. CONCLUSION: There was strong concordance among laboratories performing qualitative omicron nucleic acid testing. Ct values from qualitative RT-PCR tests should not be used for clinical or epidemiological decision-making to avoid the potential for misinterpretation of the results.

Cochlear Function in Adults Exposed to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a viral infection with a wide variety of symptoms, including fever, coughing, sneezing, fatigue, and a loss of taste and smell. Moreover, there are some recent studies that investigate the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on hearing and auditory performance. With this current study, we investigate the early effects of the coronavirus disease on hair cells in the cochlea. METHODS: In the current study, there were 25 subjects (17 females, 8 males) who tested positive for polymerase chain reaction on nasopharyngeal swabs. They had reported normal auditory functions and no history of otology before SARS-CoV-2. To determine auditory functions, pure-tone audiometry, otoacoustic emissions (OAE) tests, and threshold equalizing noise (TEN) tests were used. RESULTS: Although the hearing thresholds increased at higher frequencies, they were within normal limits according to four-frequency pure-tone averages. All participants had normal OAE, and there were no detected dead regions for any of the subjects. Even so, there were significant increases in hearing thresholds in TEN. CONCLUSION: There is no cochlear dysfunction discovered by OAE and TEN in SARS-CoV-2-affected individuals. Nonetheless, the increase in hearing thresholds at higher frequencies, other than the pure-tone average frequencies detected by TEN, and the decrease in the presence of detected OAE could be related to deterioration in the basal part of the cochlea.

Problemas ligados ao álcool em centros de emergência (PLACE)-People experiencing homelessness with alcohol-related problems in Lisbon's emergency shelters during the COVID-19 pandemic: a description and analysis of a harm reduction intervention.

Introduction: Alcohol-related problems disproportionally affect people experiencing homelessness. As the first wave of the COVID-2019 pandemic spread in 2020, a number of emergency shelters were opened in Lisbon. Increased difficulties in obtaining alcohol could have led to an increased incidence of alcohol withdrawal. Therefore, a low-threshold harm reduction intervention was introduced to these emergency shelters. This consisted of a fixed medication treatment, made available immediately for those with specific conditions, without the need for a medical evaluation or abstinence from alcohol, together with an offer of subsequent access to specialized addiction centers. The Problemas Ligados ao Álcool em Centros de Emergência (PLACE) study (alcohol-related problems in emergency shelters) is a retrospective mixed-methods observational study. It describes the demographic, health, and social characteristics of shelter users participating in the program and aims to evaluate the intervention as well as the experience of the patients, professionals, and decision-makers involved. Results: A total of 69 people using shelters self-reported alcohol-related problems. Among them, 36.2% of the people accepted a pharmacological intervention, and 23.2% selected an addiction appointment. The take-up of the intervention was associated with better housing outcomes. A description of an individual's trajectory after leaving the shelter is provided. Discussion: This study suggests that non-abstinence-focused interventions can be useful and well-tolerated in treating addiction in this population.

Under Pandemic: Assessment of Ventilation in Secondary Schools in The Netherlands

To investigate the sufficiency of ventilation during the COVID-19 pandemic for school children, a field study was conducted in 37 classrooms of 11 Dutch secondary schools between October 2020 and June 2021. All the classrooms were visited twice, before and after a three-month national lockdown, when different measures against COVID-19 were taken by the schools. For each visit, both CO2 concentrations and air temperature were measured during school hours, and detailed information on building/classroom characteristics, occupancy, and COVID-19 measures was collected. Results show that before the lockdown, CO2 concentrations in most classrooms exceeded the threshold levels of the Dutch Fresh Schools guidelines. The significantly lower CO2 concentrations measured after the lockdown, however, were mainly due to the decreased occupancy. Moreover, with windows and doors always being opened on purpose, the performance of different ventilation regimes could not be compared, while such behaviour may also lead to thermal discomfort for school children. © 2022 17th International Conference on Indoor Air Quality and Climate, INDOOR AIR 2022. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Association Between Ct Value of SARS-COV-2 PCR with Disease Progression and Mortality

Objective: Multiple factors have been studied in association with disease severity in COVID-19. The cycle threshold (Ct) value of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can reflect viral load in the specimens. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of the Ct value on clinical course and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Methods: Adult patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR test and who were hospitalized with COVID-19-related symptoms between August 1, 2020, and November 30, 2020, were included in the study. In addition, Ct value, demographic and clinical data (length of hospital stay, need for admission to intensive care unit (ICU), need for mechanical ventilation (MV), and mortality) were reviewed retrospectively. Results: 117 patients were included in the study. The mean Ct value was 22.37 +/- 4.72 (11.07-34.06). There was no significant difference in the mean Ct values between the patients who needed ICU admission and those who did not. When the patients were evaluated by dividing them into three groups according to their Ct values, as < 20, between 20-24 and >24;there was no significant difference between these three groups in terms of severity of pneumonia, laboratory parameters (D-dimer, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count), length of hospital stay, need for ICU admission, need for MV and mortality. When the patients were divided into two groups with Ct values as <23.3 and >= 23.3, no significant difference was found between the groups regarding ICU need, MV need, and 28-day mortality rates. Conclusion: Most of the studies in the literature about Ct value and its effect on clinical course indicate that lower Ct values are potentially associated with worse outcomes in COVID-19. However, there are also studies reporting that the Ct value does not reflect the severity of the disease. We did not find a correlation between Ct value and laboratory markers, length of hospital stay, the severity of pneumonia, need for ICU admission or MV, and mortality in COVID-19 patients in this presented study.

Importance of cycle threshold values in detection of severity and outcome in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

Background and Objectives: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and pathogenic coronavirus that emerged in late 2019. Cycle threshold (Ct) value of real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay inversely correlated with viral load and can provide an indirect method of quantifying the number of copies of viral RNA in the sample is not reported clinically. Hence, this study was undertaken to compare the Ct values of patients tested positive for SARS CoV-2 by RT-PCR with severity of illness, duration of hospital stay, and mortality. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted over a period of 6 months in a tertiary care hospital in Bangalore. All patients tested positive for SARS CoV-2 by RT-PCR and admitted in our hospital were included in the study. Details of the patients on the duration of hospital stay, age, presence of comorbidities, intubation, and mortality were collected. Results: The study comprised of 80 patients, 48 (60%) males and 32 (40%) females. The mean age of the study population was 38.38 years. Majority of patients 41.25% had Ct value between 25 and 30. Patients with lower Ct values were significant associated with increased duration of hospital stay and infected more than one person in family indicating higher probability of transmission of infection. Mortality showed significant association with patients of more than 60 years' age. Interpretation and Conclusions: The study shows possible association between Ct values of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay with the duration of hospitalization, infectivity, and mortality. Mention of Ct value along with the positive report could potentially be used to guide patient care management, infection control, and occupational health decisions.

Prognostic criteria for the development of severe clinical forms of COVID-19 in medical organization workers

Employees of medical organizations are one of the risk groups for infection with a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19), including with the development of severe clinical forms. The aim of the study was to analyze the clinical manifestations of a new coronavirus infection in medical workers with the determination of laboratory markers for the development of severe COVID-19. Material and methods. The study included 186 medical workers who had COVID-19 in 2020. In 67 people (observation group), the disease occurred in the form of pneumonia, in 119 people (comparison group) - acute respiratory infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. In the acute period of the disease, a laboratory examination was carried out: a general clinical blood test, CD-typing of lymphocyte subpopulations, assessment of biochemical parameters, determination of parameters of the hemostasis system and cytokine levels. Using the binary logistic regression method, we have built multifactor models. To determine the threshold values of the indicators, we used ROC analysis. Statistical processing of materials was carried out using Microsoft Office 2016 and IBM SPSS Statistics (version 26). The differences were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. Results and discussion. The most frequent clinical manifestations of COVID-19 were: weakness, fever, myalgia, arthralgia, difficulty in nasal breathing, serous-mucous discharge from the nose, sore throat, cough, feeling of "tightness" in the chest, shortness of breath, headache, pain in the eyeballs, dizziness, anosmia, ageusia and dyspeptic manifestations in the form of diarrhea, nausea or vomiting. Markers associated with the development of severe pneumonia associated with COVID-19 have been identified. Threshold values of laboratory parameters for predicting the severe course of COVID-19 were determined: the number of platelets (less than 239x109/l), lymphocytes (less than 1.955x109/l), cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (less than 0.455x109/l), T-helper cells (less than 0.855x109/l), NK-cells (less than 0.205x109/l), ESR (more than 11.5 mm/h), LDH (more than 196 units/l), total protein (less than 71.55 g/l), D-dimer (more than 0.325 mcg/ml), CRP (more than 4.17 mg/l), IL-6 (more than 3.63 pg/l). Conclusion. The data obtained make it possible to predict the possibility of developing a severe variant of the COVID-19 course.Copyright © 2022 Infectious Diseases: News, Opinions, Training. All rights reserved.

SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant Infection of a Patient Immunized by Inactive Sinovac (CoronaVac) Vaccine

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in December 2019, and shortly after pandemic has been declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) due to its unstoppable global spread. Considerable amount of effort has beenput around the World in order to develop a safe and effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Inactivated and RNA vaccines have already passed phase three studies showing sufficient efficacy and safety, respectively. Nowadays, there is a noticeable dominance of SARS-CoV-2 variants with various mutations over the wild type SARS-CoV-2. However, there is no report showing the efficacy of these vaccines on these variants. This case study describes a thirty-eight-year-old male reported to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant following two doses of inactive CoronaVac administration with a protective level of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies. The variant analysis of the virus reported to be positive for N501Y mutation.This is the first case in the literature demonstrating that inactive SARS-CoV-2 vaccine might have a lower efficacy on alpha variant.Copyright © 2022 Cenk Serhan Ozverel et al., published by Sciendo.

Cardiopulmonary, functional, cognitive and mental health outcomes post covid, across the range of severity of acute illness, in a physically active working age population: baseline findings from the MCOVID study

BackgroundThe medium-long impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on active populations is yet to be fully understood, with potential individual and operational impact on military service personnel (SP). The M-COVID study was established to investigate cardiopulmonary, functional, cognitive, and mental health post-COVID-19 SP outcomes, across the spectrum of acute COVID-19 severity.MethodObservational four-cohort study;hospitalised, community-based illness with on-going symptoms (communitysymptomatic), community-based illness now recovered (community-recovered) and age, sex, job-role matched control. Participants underwent extensive clinical assessment involving cardiopulmonary imaging, submaximal and maximal exercise testing, pulmonary function, cognitive assessment, blood tests, electrocardiogram and questionnaires on mental health and physical function.Results113 participants (aged 39±9, 86% male) were recruited;Hospitalised (n=35), community-symptomatic (n=34), community-recovered (n=18) and control (n=26), 159±72 days following acute illness. Hospitalised and community-symptomatic groups were older (p=0.003), with a higher body mass index (p<0.001), and worse mental health (anxiety,p=0.011;depression,p<0.001;post-traumatic stress, p<0.001), fatigue (p<0.001), and quality of life scores (p=0.001), with a mean of 2±2 and 2±1 symptoms, respectively. Hospitalised and community-symptomatic participants also performed less well on sub-maximal (p<0.001) and maximal exercise testing, with hospitalised individuals displaying impaired ventilatory efficiency (p<0.001), less work at the anaerobic threshold and at peak (both p<0.001), and significantly reduced forced vital capacity (p=0.004). Clinically significant abnormal cardiopulmonary imaging findings were present in 6% of hospitalised participants, lower than those seen in other studies. Those who recovered from communitybased, mild-moderate COVID-19 had no significant differences from controls on any parameter.ConclusionsRecovered SP who suffered mild-moderate COVID-19 do not differ from an age, sex and job-role matched controls. This is reassuring for the vast majority of individuals who have had acute COVID-19 not requiring hospital management. Individuals who were hospitalised or continue to suffer symptoms may require a specific, comprehensive clinical and occupational assessment prior to a full return to duty.

Cycle threshold predicted mortality in a cohort of patients with hematologic malignancies infected with SARS-CoV-2.

When a SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR test is performed, it may determine an indirect measure of viral load called cycle threshold (Ct). Respiratory samples with Ct <25.0 cycles are considered to contain a high viral load. We aimed to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 Ct at diagnosis could predict mortality in patients with hematologic malignancies (lymphomas, leukemias, multiple myeloma) who contracted COVID-19. We included 35 adults with COVID-19 confirmed by RT-qPCR performed at diagnosis. We evaluated mortality due to COVID-19 rather than mortality due to the hematologic neoplasm or all-cause mortality. Twenty-seven (27) patients survived and 8 died. The global mean Ct was 22.8 cycles with a median of 21.7. Among the survivors, the mean Ct was 24.2, and the median Ct value was 22.9 cycles. In the deceased patients, the mean Ct was 18.0 and the median Ct value was 17.0 cycles. Using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test, we found a significant difference (p=0.035). SARS-CoV-2 Ct measured in nasal swabs obtained at diagnosis from patients with hematologic malignancies may be used to predict mortality.

Judicious ending of isolation based on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold only for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring in-hospital therapy for longer than 20 days after symptom onset.

BACKGROUND: For patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring hospitalization, extending isolation is warranted. As a cautious protocol, ending isolation based on polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) value was introduced for patients requiring therapy for >20 days after symptom onset. METHOD: We compared a Ct-based strategy using Smart Gene® between March 2022 and January 2023 with a preceding control period (March 2021 to February 2022) when two consecutive negative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests using FilmArray® were required for ending isolation. Ct was evaluated on day 21, and ending isolation was permitted in patients with Ct ≥ 38. Although patients with Ct 35-37 were transferred to a non-COVID-19 ward, isolation was continued. RESULTS: The duration of stay on a COVID-19 ward in the Ct group was 9.7 days shorter than that in controls. The cumulative number of tests was 3.7 in controls and 1.2 in the Ct group. There was no nosocomial transmission after ending isolation in either group. The number of days from symptom onset to testing was 20.7 ± 2.1 in Ct group, and five patients had Ct < 35, nine Ct 35-37, and 71 Ct ≥ 38. No patients were moderately or severely immunocompromised. Steroid use was an independent risk factor for prolonged low Ct (odds ratio 9.40, 95% confidence interval 2.31-38.15, p = 0.002) CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of ending isolation based on Ct values could improve bed utilization without the risk of transmission among patients with COVID-19 requiring therapy for >20 days after symptom onset.

Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: Parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India.

A deterministic model with testing of infected individuals has been proposed to investigate the potential consequences of the impact of testing strategy. The model exhibits global dynamics concerning the disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium depending on the basic reproduction number when the recruitment of infected individuals is zero; otherwise, the model does not have a disease-free equilibrium, and disease never dies out in the community. Model parameters have been estimated using the maximum likelihood method with respect to the data of early COVID-19 outbreak in India. The practical identifiability analysis shows that the model parameters are estimated uniquely. The consequences of the testing rate for the weekly new cases of early COVID-19 data in India tell that if the testing rate is increased by 20% and 30% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 37.63% and 52.90%; and it also delayed the peak time by four and fourteen weeks, respectively. Similar findings are obtained for the testing efficacy that if it is increased by 12.67% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 59.05% and delayed the peak by 15 weeks. Therefore, a higher testing rate and efficacy reduce the disease burden by tumbling the new cases, representing a real scenario. It is also obtained that the testing rate and efficacy reduce the epidemic's severity by increasing the final size of the susceptible population. The testing rate is found more significant if testing efficacy is high. Global sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) determine the key parameters that must be targeted to worsen/contain the epidemic.

Convalescent Plasma Treatment of Severe Covid-19 Cases in the Bronx, Ny

Junior Physician Investigator Award Recipient Purpose of study Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus- 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Convalescent plasma obtained from recovered persons was used for previous respiratory pandemics. Convalescent plasma with severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies (CCP) was proposed as an option that may hold promise as treatment for COVID-19. Our aim was to retrospectively evaluate the efficacy of CCP treatment of patients with severe to life-threatening COVID-19 hospitalized at Montefiore Medical Center (MMC) in the Bronx, NY between April 13 to May 4, 2020. Methods used We administered CCP as part of the Mayo Clinic expanded access investigational new drug (IND) program for hospitalized patients. We compared the mortality and clinical outcome of 73 patients with COVID-19 who received 200 mL of CCP with a Spike protein IgG titer >=1:2,430 (median 1:47,385) within 72 hours of admission to 1:1 propensity score-matched controls. Matching criteria for controls were age, sex, body mass index, race, ethnicity, comorbidities, week of admission, oxygen requirement, D-dimer, lymphocyte counts, corticosteroids, and anticoagulation use (figure 1). We additionally measured Spike protein IgG and neutralizing antibody titer in CCP and pre- and post-transfusion Spike protein IgG, IgM and IgA titer in CCP recipients. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at day 28 post-CCP. The secondary outcomes were improvement in oxygenation status or mortality at day 28 post-CCP. Exploratory outcomes were associations between pre-CCP SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers and mortality at day 28. Summary of results There was no difference in mortality or oxygenation between CCP recipients and controls at day 28. When stratified by age, compared to matched controls, CCP recipients < 65 years had 4-fold lower mortality and 4-fold lower deterioration in oxygenation or mortality at day 28 (figure 2, 3). There was no association between CCP IgG or neutralizing antibody titer and clinical outcome. For CCP recipients, pre-transfusion Spike protein IgG, IgM and IgA titers were associated with mortality at day 28 in univariate analyses but not in multivariable analyses. Pre-transfusion Spike protein IgG titer was significantly correlated with Ddimer and detected viral load measured by cycle threshold (Ct) value of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcriptase- polymerase-chain-reaction (figure 4). No adverse effects of CCP were observed. Conclusions We report that CCP administration within 72 hours of hospitalization demonstrated a possible signal of reduced mortality in patients < 65 years. Pre-transfusion IgG titer may be a proxy for disease severity that may be useful in identifying those who are more likely to respond to CCP. Data from controlled trials is needed to validate this finding and establish the effect of ageing on CCP efficacy. (Figure Presented).

The relationship between serum biomarkers and viral load of COVID-19 with severity of lung involvement on chest computed tomography - A single centre study

Introduction: The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between Cycle Threshold (Ct) values and serum biomarkers in COVID-19 patients with Total Severity Score (TSS) on chest computed tomography (CT). Apart from this, this study also aims to explore the role of TSS, serum biomarkers and viral load in predicting the disease severity and clinical outcome of patients with COVID-19. Method(s): In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we included 213 confirmed COVID-19 patients from Hospital Sungai Buloh who conform to the inclusion criteria. A search was performed on the picture achieving and communication system (PACS) and Centricity UV to collect data on the clinical features, laboratory findings (the first one upon admission), epidemiological characteristics as well as the chest CT scans of the targeted group. To quantify the extent of COVID- 19 lung involvement in CT scan, TSS was applied. Data was collected and analysed using SPSS. Result(s): There were significant correlations between TSS of chest CT with four out of the six serum biomarkers studied, namely C-Reactive Protein (CRP), Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), creatinine and Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH). There was an inverse relationship between TSS and Ct values. TSS, serum biomarkers (NLR, CRP, LDH and creatinine) as well as Ct value are good predictors of disease severity. Conclusion(s): TSS is a reliable scoring method to determine the severity of COVID-19 patients. Serum biomarkers which include NLR, CRP, LDH and creatinine are good predictors of disease severity and can be used for stratification of patients according to severity. Ct value is a valuable early indicator of disease severity.

SARS-CoV-2 INFECTION AMONG PERSONS WHO INJECT DRUGS AND THEIR PARTNERS IN KENYA

Background: Despite increased social vulnerability and barriers to care, there has been a paucity of data on SARS-CoV-2 incidence among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We seek to characterize active infections and define transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 among people who inject drugs (PWID) and their sexual and injecting partners from Nairobi and the coastal region in Kenya. Method(s): This was a nested cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 infection from April to July 2021 within a cohort study of assisted partner services for PWID in Kenya. A total of 1000 PWID and their partners (500 living with and 500 living without HIV) were recruited for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, of whom 440 were randomly selected to provide self-collected nasal swabs for real-time PCR testing. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was completed on a limited subset of samples (N=23) with cycle threshold values 32.0. Phylogenetic tree construction and analysis was performed using the Nextstrain pipeline and compared with publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences from GenBank. Result(s): A total of 438 (99.5%) participants provided samples for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. Median age was 37 (IQR 32-42);128 (29.2%) were female;and 222 (50.7%) were living with HIV. The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by RT-PCR was 86 (19.6%). In univariate analyses, there was no increased relative risk of SARSCoV- 2 infection related to positive HIV status, frequenting an injection den, methadone treatment, unstable housing, report of any high-risk exposure, or having a sexual or injecting partner diagnosed with COVID-19 or who died from COVID-19 or flu-like illness. Eight samples were successfully sequenced via WGS and classified as WHO variants of concern: 3 Delta, 3 Alpha, and 2 Beta. Seven were classified into clades predominantly circulating in Kenya during 2021. Notably, two sequences were identical and matched identically to another Kenyan sequence, which is consistent with, though not indictive of, a transmission linkage. Conclusion(s): Overall, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this population of PWID and their partners was not significantly associated with risk factors related to injection drug use. At a genomic level, the SARS-CoV-2 strains in this study were consistent with contemporary Kenyan lineages circulating during the time and not unique to PWID. Prevention efforts, therefore, must also focus on marginalized groups for control given the substantial amount of mixing that likely occurs between populations.